Home / NHL Projections NHL / Rangers @ Senators NYR @ OTT

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

7-5-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

8-4-0  |  Home

7
Goaltending
Dylan Garand
GOALTENDER

Dylan Garand

#33 | Goaltender
@
Jonas Johansson
GOALTENDER

Jonas Johansson

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dylan Garand None-None 5.13 0.773 --
Jonas Johansson None-None 4.03 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.13 GAA Ldr 4.03
0.773 Save % Ldr 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
38%
📊
SENATORS
62%
▲ Edge: +7.50% (OTT)
RANGERS 48% Book Odds: +109
SENATORS 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 47.80% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0 43%
Under 6.0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
OTTAWA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Ottawa)
RangersNYR (+1.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (-1.5)
Ottawa Senators (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

21.2%

Senators Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

NYR By 1 goal

8.6%

NYR By 2-3 goals

5.5%

OTT By 1 goal

18.9%

OTT By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.20
3.8
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.20
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Senators Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Senators (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 NYR @ OTT 4 - 7
Mar 23, 2026 OTT @ NYR 2 - 1
Jan 14, 2026 OTT @ NYR 8 - 4
Dec 4, 2025 NYR @ OTT 4 - 2
Mar 8, 2025 NYR @ OTT 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +34.1% more
Ottawa: 4.7 vs New York: 3.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.6% more
Ottawa: 30.9 vs New York: 25.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +12.3% more
Ottawa: 14.1 vs New York: 12.6
Faceoff % (L5) +2.2%
Ottawa: 54.8% vs New York: 52.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYR Score 2.2 4
OTT Score 3.8 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.1 / 12.6 19.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 54.8 / 52.7 48.3 / 51.7
Hits 22.0 / 25.4 34.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 684.0 / 1235.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.9 / 25.8 24.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 3.5 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → +109 / -120 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
85%TICKETS15%
96%MONEY4%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
NYR
OTT
NYR
ML
42% 8-11
70% 14-6
42% 8-11
55% 11-9
ATS
37% 7-12
60% 12-8
68% 13-6
50% 10-10
TTL
58% 11-8
60% 12-8
63% 12-7
45% 9-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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