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LOS ANGELES

KINGSLA

2-4-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 7:30 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

5-3-2  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Darcy Kuemper
GOALTENDER

Darcy Kuemper

#35 | Goaltender
@
Semyon Varlamov
GOALTENDER

Semyon Varlamov

#40 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Darcy Kuemper None-None 1.92 0.953 --
Semyon Varlamov None-None 2.89 0.889 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.92 Ldr GAA 2.89
0.953 Ldr Save % 0.889
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
33%
📊
ISLANDERS
67%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (NYI)
KINGS 52% Book Odds: -110
ISLANDERS 50% Book Odds: -100
Book Implied: 52.40% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5 58%
Under 5.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New York)
KingsLA (-1.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+1.5)
New York Islanders (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

21.2%

Islanders Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

LA By 1 goal

8.6%

LA By 2-3 goals

5.5%

NYI By 1 goal

18.9%

NYI By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Islanders Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Kings Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Islanders (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Islanders (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 LA @ NYI 3 - 2
Mar 13, 2026 LA @ NYI 3 - 2
Mar 5, 2026 NYI @ LA 3 - 5
Mar 11, 2025 NYI @ LA 1 - 4
Dec 10, 2024 LA @ NYI 3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5) +4.9%
New York: 55.5% vs Los Angeles: 50.6%
Takeaways (L5) +46.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.6 vs New York: 3.0
Blocked Shots (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 16.8 vs New York: 11.8
Shots on Goal (L5) +15.3% more
Los Angeles: 28.6 vs New York: 24.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LA Score 2.2 3
NYI Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.8 / 16.8 14.0 / 18.0
Faceoff % 55.5 / 50.6 63.0 / 37.0
Hits 22.8 / 24.9 25.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 14.1 / 22.9 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.2 / 28.6 43.0 / 27.0
Takeaways 3.0 / 5.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118 → -110 / -100 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
LA
NYI
LA
ML
65% 11-6
47% 7-8
65% 11-6
47% 7-8
ATS
41% 7-10
53% 8-7
53% 9-8
67% 10-5
TTL
25% 4-12-1
20% 3-12
69% 11-5-1
27% 4-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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