FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
5-4-2 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
4-6-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Cooper Black
#31 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Arturs Silovs
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Black | None-None | 3.15 | 0.850 | -- |
| Arturs Silovs | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.15
GAA
Ldr 0.00
0.850
Save %
Ldr 1.000
--
SO
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
44%
PENGUINS
56%
▲ Edge: +3.80% (PIT)
PANTHERS
53%
Book Odds: -112
PENGUINS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5
42%
Under 6.5
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
FLA By 1 goal
8.6%
FLA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
PIT By 1 goal
18.9%
PIT By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
2.2
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 2.50
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 2.50
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Penguins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
A
Sim
Panthers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 22, 2026
FLA @ PIT
0 - 4
Apr 5, 2026
FLA @ PIT
2 - 5
Apr 4, 2026
FLA @ PIT
4 - 9
Oct 23, 2025
PIT @ FLA
5 - 3
Mar 23, 2025
PIT @ FLA
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+27.2% more
Pittsburgh: 13.1
vs
Florida: 10.3
Power Play % (L5)
+25.9%
Pittsburgh: 57.5%
vs
Florida: 31.6%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.5%
Pittsburgh: 43.7%
vs
Florida: 41.2%
Hits (L5)
+59.8% more
Florida: 32.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
2.2
0
PIT Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.1 / 10.3
13.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
43.7 / 41.2
54.8 / 45.2
Hits
13.0 / 32.3
10.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
5751.0 / 3159.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.1 / 28.2
21.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 3.7
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
-112 / -108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
FLA
PIT
FLA
ML
78%
14-4
67%
12-6
50%
9-9
50%
9-9
ATS
56%
10-8
56%
10-8
67%
12-6
50%
9-9
TTL
28%
5-13
50%
9-9
44%
8-10
50%
9-9
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