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SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

6-4-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

7-4-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Yaroslav Askarov
GOALTENDER

Yaroslav Askarov

#30 | Goaltender
@
Samuel Ersson
GOALTENDER

Samuel Ersson

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Yaroslav Askarov None-None 2.00 0.953 --
Samuel Ersson None-None 4.28 0.846 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 4.28
0.953 Ldr Save % 0.846
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
27%
📊
SENATORS
73%
▲ Edge: +17.20% (OTT)
SHARKS 46% Book Odds: +116
SENATORS 56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 46.30% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 41%
Under 6.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
OTTAWA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Ottawa)
SharksSJ (+1.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (-1.5)
Ottawa Senators (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

21.2%

Senators Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

SJ By 1 goal

8.6%

SJ By 2-3 goals

5.5%

OTT By 1 goal

18.9%

OTT By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
3.8
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Senators Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Senators Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Senators (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Sharks (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 OTT @ SJ 5 - 1
Oct 22, 2026 SJ @ OTT 6 - 2
Mar 15, 2026 SJ @ OTT 4 - 7
Nov 22, 2025 OTT @ SJ 3 - 2
Mar 1, 2025 SJ @ OTT 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +8.5% more
Ottawa: 16.7 vs San Jose: 15.4
Faceoff % (L5) +4.4%
Ottawa: 54.3% vs San Jose: 49.9%
Power Play % (L5) +21.5%
San Jose: 31.8% vs Ottawa: 10.3%
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.2% more
San Jose: 30.7 vs Ottawa: 24.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 2.2 6
OTT Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.7 / 15.4 9.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 54.3 / 49.9 55.9 / 44.1
Hits 22.9 / 21.4 20.0 / 27.0
Power Play % 10.3 / 31.8 0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 24.8 / 30.7 43.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 4.6 / 4.6 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +116 / -128 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
65%TICKETS35%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
83%TICKETS17%
86%MONEY14%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
SJ
OTT
SJ
ML
44% 8-10
60% 12-8
44% 8-10
45% 9-11
ATS
33% 6-12
45% 9-11
67% 12-6
45% 9-11
TTL
56% 10-8
45% 9-11
61% 11-7
55% 11-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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