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ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-5  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

3-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Jake Bailey None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
38%
📊
BUCCANEERS
62%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (TB)
FALCONS 48% Book Odds: +110
BUCCANEERS 57% Book Odds: -130
Book Implied: 47.60% / 56.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 42.5 55%
Under 42.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Atlanta)
FalconsATL (+1.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (-1.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

52.8%

Buccaneers Cover

47.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ATL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-6 points

16.1%

ATL By 7-13 points

14.6%

TB By 1-6 points

16.7%

TB By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 20.50
23.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
26
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 20.50
21
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Falcons Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Falcons (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Falcons (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.4
C
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 ATL @ TB 0 - 16
Dec 11, 2025 ATL @ TB 29 - 28
Sep 7, 2025 TB @ ATL 23 - 20
Oct 27, 2024 ATL @ TB 31 - 26
Oct 3, 2024 TB @ ATL 30 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +60.7% more
Tampa Bay: 176.5 vs Atlanta: 109.8
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6 vs Atlanta: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +43.1% more
Atlanta: 213.7 vs Tampa Bay: 121.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 22.2 0
TB Score 23.2 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 18.8 16.0 / 8.0
Net Passing Yards 121.5 / 213.7 -2.0 / 125.0
Rushing Yards 176.5 / 109.8 324.0 / 99.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 298.0 / 323.5 322.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.4 5.4 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218 → +110 / -130 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 42.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
TB
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
TB
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
TB
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATL
TB
ATL
ML
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
88% 7-1
25% 2-6
ATS
29% 2-5-1
38% 3-5
71% 5-2-1
25% 2-6
TTL
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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