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CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

5-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

6-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Cameron Johnston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
33%
📊
STEELERS
67%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (PIT)
BROWNS 36% Book Odds: +181
STEELERS 67% Book Odds: -204
Book Implied: 35.60% / 67.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 38.5 63%
Under 38.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cleveland)
BrownsCLE (+3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (-3.5)
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

59.6%

Steelers Cover

40.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLE +3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-6 points

15.1%

CLE By 7-13 points

12.6%

PIT By 1-6 points

17.0%

PIT By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 17.50
23.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
17
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 17.50
23
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Steelers Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Steelers Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Browns (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.4
D
Sim Steelers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Sim o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 CLE @ PIT 6 - 27
Oct 1, 2026 PIT @ CLE 24 - 27
Dec 28, 2025 PIT @ CLE 6 - 13
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ PIT 9 - 23
Dec 8, 2024 CLE @ PIT 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Cleveland: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +52.6% more
Cleveland: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 19.8 6
PIT Score 23.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 19.1 21.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 212.6 / 210.5 161.0 / 285.0
Rushing Yards 117.5 / 126.4 200.0 / 34.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 330.1 / 336.9 361.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.3 6.1 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +210 / -258 → +181 / -204 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6 / -6 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39.5 → 38.5 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
PIT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
PIT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
PIT
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CLE
PIT
CLE
ML
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
ATS
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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