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MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

6-1  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

5-2  |  Home

19
Key Game
Brett Thorson
KEY GAME

Brett Thorson

#19 | Punter
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Brett Thorson None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
38%
📊
LIONS
62%
VIKINGS 39% Book Odds: +159
LIONS 64% Book Odds: -178
Book Implied: 38.60% / 64%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
Over 46.0 50%
Under 46.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (+3.5) 0 LionsDET (-3.5)
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

54.5%

Lions Cover

45.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN +1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

15.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

14.1%

DET By 1-6 points

16.8%

DET By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 21.20
23.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
21
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 21.20
26
DETROIT
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Lions Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.6
C
Sim Lions (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u46.0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Sim o46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 MIN @ DET 15 - 19
Dec 25, 2025 DET @ MIN 10 - 23
Nov 2, 2025 MIN @ DET 27 - 24
Jan 5, 2025 MIN @ DET 9 - 31
Oct 20, 2024 DET @ MIN 31 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +70.4% more
Detroit: 288.5 vs Minnesota: 169.3
First Downs (L5) +48.3% more
Detroit: 24.6 vs Minnesota: 16.6
Total Yards (L5) +37.9% more
Detroit: 407.8 vs Minnesota: 295.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +27.4% more
Detroit: 6.2 vs Minnesota: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 22.2 15
DET Score 23.8 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 16.6 24.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 288.5 / 169.3 154.0 / 185.0
Rushing Yards 119.3 / 126.4 230.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 407.8 / 295.7 384.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.2 / 4.9 5.6 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -225 → +159 / -178 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 46 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +4.9
DET
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +4.9
DET
2-4-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -9.8
DET
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIN
DET
MIN
ML
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
ATS
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5
67% 4-2-1
86% 6-1
TTL
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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