Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Cowboys ARI @ DAL

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-5  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-5  |  Home

30
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
22%
📊
COWBOYS
78%
CARDINALS 25% Book Odds: +297
COWBOYS 78% Book Odds: -351
Book Implied: 25.20% / 77.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 42%
Under 54.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Arizona)
CardinalsARI (+7.5) 0 CowboysDAL (-7.5)
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

64.0%

Cowboys Cover

36.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARI +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-6 points

14.2%

ARI By 7-13 points

11.3%

DAL By 1-6 points

16.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 23.50
28.5
DALLAS
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
19
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 23.50
30
DALLAS
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cowboys Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Cowboys Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Sim Cowboys (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 ARI @ DAL 33 - 30
Nov 3, 2025 ARI @ DAL 27 - 17
Sep 24, 2023 DAL @ ARI 16 - 28
Jan 2, 2022 ARI @ DAL 25 - 22
Oct 19, 2020 ARI @ DAL 38 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.6% more
Dallas: 5.8 vs Arizona: 4.7
Turnovers (L5) +22.0% more
Dallas: 1.0 vs Arizona: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.1% more
Dallas: 114.7 vs Arizona: 97.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Dallas: 0.5 vs Arizona: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 23.5 33
DAL Score 28.5 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 22.0 19.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 256.8 / 235.7 168.0 / 265.0
Rushing Yards 114.7 / 97.1 93.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 371.5 / 332.8 261.0 / 467.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.7 3.6 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +410 / -549 → +297 / -351 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 54.5 ↑
49%TICKETS51%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.9 ATS +/-: -1.8
DAL
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.9 ATS +/-: -1.8
DAL
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +3.1
DAL
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
ARI
DAL
ARI
ML
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
12% 1-7
ATS
71% 5-2-1
88% 7-1
57% 4-3-1
25% 2-6
TTL
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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