Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Bengals TEN @ CIN

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-7  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sun, Nov 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

5-2  |  Home

43
Key Game
Thomas Morstead
KEY GAME

Thomas Morstead

#13 | Punter
@
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
Player
Thomas Morstead None-None
Ryan Rehkow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
27%
📊
BENGALS
73%
▲ Edge: +13.10% (TEN)
TITANS 14% Book Odds: +600
BENGALS 90% Book Odds: -901
Book Implied: 14.30% / 90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.5
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 45.5 37%
Under 45.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.5
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tennessee)
TitansTEN (+13.5) 0 BengalsCIN (-13.5)
Tennessee Titans (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

77.3%

Bengals Cover

22.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN +10.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

TEN By 1-6 points

10.4%

TEN By 7-13 points

6.9%

CIN By 1-6 points

15.0%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 16
26
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 29.50
Simulated Score
21
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 16
28
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 29.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bengals Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Bengals Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Titans (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.5
B
Sim Titans (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.5
B
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 1, 2026 TEN @ CIN 36 - 43
Dec 15, 2024 CIN @ TEN 37 - 27
Oct 1, 2023 CIN @ TEN 3 - 27
Nov 27, 2022 CIN @ TEN 20 - 16
Jan 22, 2022 CIN @ TEN 19 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +73.1% more
Cincinnati: 270.1 vs Tennessee: 156.0
First Downs (L5) +38.1% more
Cincinnati: 21.7 vs Tennessee: 15.7
Total Yards (L5) +36.9% more
Cincinnati: 352.7 vs Tennessee: 257.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +31.6% more
Cincinnati: 6.0 vs Tennessee: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 15.5 36
CIN Score 26.0 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 15.7 29.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 270.1 / 156.0 435.0 / 282.0
Rushing Yards 82.6 / 101.6 75.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.7 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 352.7 / 257.6 510.0 / 440.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.6 4.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 4.6 7.3 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +235 / -290 → +600 / -901 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 45.5 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
CIN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
CIN
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
CIN
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TEN
CIN
TEN
ML
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
ATS
33% 2-4-1
50% 4-4
83% 5-1-1
62% 5-3
TTL
43% 3-4
25% 2-6
86% 6-1
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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