BALTIMORE
RAVENSBAL
4-4 | Road
10
BUFFALO
BILLSBUF
6-1 | Home
36
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ryan Eckley
#30 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Tommy Doman Jr.
#39 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ryan Eckley | None-None |
| Tommy Doman Jr. | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
43%
BILLS
57%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (BAL)
RAVENS
40%
Book Odds: +150
BILLS
63%
Book Odds: -167
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 55.5
44%
Under 55.5
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BAL By 1-6 points
13.8%
BAL By 7-13 points
10.8%
BUF By 1-6 points
16.8%
BUF By 7-13 points
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
24
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 26.20
Buffalo
29.5
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
Baltimore
24
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 26.20
Buffalo
27
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bills
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Bills
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bills (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
B
Sim
Ravens (+3)
Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u55.5
Win
Proj Total: 53.5
C
Sim
u55.5
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 1, 2026
BAL @ BUF
10 - 36
Sep 7, 2025
BAL @ BUF
40 - 41
Jan 19, 2025
BAL @ BUF
25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024
BUF @ BAL
10 - 35
Oct 2, 2022
BUF @ BAL
23 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+47.0% more
Buffalo: 1.3
vs
Baltimore: 0.9
First Downs (L5)
+27.1% more
Buffalo: 23.1
vs
Baltimore: 18.2
Rushing Yards (L5)
+19.9% more
Buffalo: 147.0
vs
Baltimore: 122.7
Yards Per Play (L5)
+13.7% more
Buffalo: 6.2
vs
Baltimore: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
24.0
10
BUF Score
29.5
36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
23.1 / 18.2
24.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards
226.7 / 220.6
280.0 / 68.0
Rushing Yards
147.0 / 122.7
146.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.29 / 0.23
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards
373.8 / 343.3
426.0 / 144.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 0.9
2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play
6.2 / 5.5
5.6 / 2.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135
→
+150 / -167
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5
→
+3 / -3
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5
→
55.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -5.6
BUF
Advantage
6-1-0
(85.7%)
Margin: 7.4
ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
2-6-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -5.6
BUF
Advantage
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 7.4
ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
BUF
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
BAL
BUF
BAL
ML
57%
4-3
62%
5-3
57%
4-3
50%
4-4
ATS
29%
2-5
43%
3-4-1
14%
1-6
71%
5-2-1
TTL
43%
3-4
38%
3-5
29%
2-5
38%
3-5
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