Home / NHL Projections NHL / Kings @ Capitals LA @ WSH

LOS ANGELES

KINGSLA

1-4-2  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

5-4-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Darcy Kuemper
GOALTENDER

Darcy Kuemper

#35 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Darcy Kuemper None-None 2.00 0.938 --
Logan Thompson None-None 4.14 0.840 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 4.14
0.938 Ldr Save % 0.840
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
25%
📊
CAPITALS
76%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (WSH)
KINGS 42% Book Odds: +140
CAPITALS 61% Book Odds: -156
Book Implied: 41.70% / 60.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5 59%
Under 5.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
KingsLA (+1.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

77.3%

Capitals Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around LA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LA)

LA By 1 goal

9.2%

LA By 2-3 goals

6.1%

WSH By 1 goal

19.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Capitals Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Kings Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Kings (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 LA @ WSH 5 - 2
Dec 2, 2025 WSH @ LA 3 - 1
Nov 17, 2025 LA @ WSH 1 - 2
Mar 13, 2025 WSH @ LA 0 - 3
Dec 22, 2024 LA @ WSH 1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +17.6% more
Washington: 19.0 vs Los Angeles: 16.2
Power Play % (L5) +16.9%
Washington: 26.3% vs Los Angeles: 9.3%
Takeaways (L5) +28.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Washington: 3.5
Hits (L5) +17.5% more
Los Angeles: 23.3 vs Washington: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LA Score 2.5 5
WSH Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 19.0 / 16.2 8.0 / 18.0
Faceoff % 51.5 / 50.5 49.1 / 50.9
Hits 19.2 / 23.3 21.0 / 28.0
Power Play % 26.3 / 9.3 25.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 25.4 / 29.9 32.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 4.9 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +140 / -156 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
60%TICKETS40%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
80%TICKETS20%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
LA
WSH
LA
ML
73% 11-4
47% 7-8
53% 8-7
47% 7-8
ATS
47% 7-8
53% 8-7
67% 10-5
67% 10-5
TTL
54% 7-6-2
20% 3-12
23% 3-10-2
27% 4-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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