SAN JOSE
SHARKSSJ
4-4-1 | Road
1
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
4-4-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Yaroslav Askarov
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov | None-None | 2.03 | 0.935 | -- |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 1.00 | 0.968 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.03
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.935
Save %
Ldr 0.968
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
44%
MAPLE LEAFS
57%
SHARKS
45%
Book Odds: +122
MAPLE LEAFS
57%
Book Odds: -135
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 7.0
42%
Under 7.0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
SJ By 1 goal
8.6%
SJ By 2-3 goals
5.5%
TOR By 1 goal
18.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Jose
2.2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.80
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
San Jose
3
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.80
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sharks
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Sharks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 19, 2026
SJ @ TOR
1 - 3
Apr 2, 2026
TOR @ SJ
1 - 4
Dec 11, 2025
SJ @ TOR
3 - 2
Mar 27, 2025
TOR @ SJ
5 - 6
Mar 3, 2025
SJ @ TOR
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.8% more
Toronto: 15.6
vs
San Jose: 14.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.7%
Toronto: 52.6%
vs
San Jose: 48.9%
Hits (L5)
+12.6% more
San Jose: 22.2
vs
Toronto: 19.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.3% more
San Jose: 31.0
vs
Toronto: 28.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SJ Score
2.2
1
TOR Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.6 / 14.4
15.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
52.6 / 48.9
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
19.4 / 22.2
15.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
21.0 / 21.4
40.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.1 / 31.0
32.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.3
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142
→
+122 / -135
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
7
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
SJ
TOR
SJ
ML
61%
11-7
63%
12-7
44%
8-10
47%
9-10
ATS
50%
9-9
47%
9-10
61%
11-7
42%
8-11
TTL
50%
9-9
42%
8-11
44%
8-10
53%
10-9
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