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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

3-5-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

8-2-0  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Sergei Murashov
GOALTENDER

Sergei Murashov

#1 | Goaltender
@
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Sergei Murashov None-None 5.03 0.737 --
Adin Hill None-None 2.00 0.917 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.03 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.737 Save % Ldr 0.917
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
44%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
56%
▲ Edge: +7.80% (PIT)
PENGUINS 36% Book Odds: +180
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PenguinsPIT (+1.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

77.3%

Golden Knights Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

9.2%

PIT By 2-3 goals

6.1%

VGK By 1 goal

19.1%

VGK By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
2
VEGAS
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Knights Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2026 VGK @ PIT 3 - 2
Oct 17, 2026 PIT @ VGK 2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026 PIT @ VGK 2 - 6
Mar 1, 2026 VGK @ PIT 0 - 5
Mar 11, 2025 VGK @ PIT 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +38.2% more
Vegas: 17.9 vs Pittsburgh: 13.0
Power Play % (L5) +19.8%
Vegas: 24.2% vs Pittsburgh: 4.4%
Blocked Shots (L5) +16.0% more
Vegas: 15.3 vs Pittsburgh: 13.2
Takeaways (L5) +8.2% more
Vegas: 4.5 vs Pittsburgh: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.5 2
VGK Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.3 / 13.2 7.0 / 10.0
Faceoff % 51.9 / 44.8 55.8 / 44.2
Hits 17.9 / 13.0 27.0 / 10.0
Power Play % 24.2 / 4.4 100.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal 30.0 / 28.0 19.0 / 24.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 4.1 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +190 / -230 → +180 / -218 ↓
8%TICKETS92%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
36%TICKETS64%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
96%TICKETS4%
99%MONEY1%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
PIT
VGK
PIT
ML
71% 12-5
80% 12-3
53% 9-8
53% 8-7
ATS
53% 9-8
53% 8-7
71% 12-5
73% 11-4
TTL
35% 6-11
33% 5-10
47% 8-9
47% 7-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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