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EDMONTON

OILERSEDM

6-1-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

6-3-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Tristan Jarry
GOALTENDER

Tristan Jarry

#35 | Goaltender
@
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Tristan Jarry None-None 2.00 0.929 --
Karel Vejmelka None-None 8.88 0.706 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 8.88
0.929 Ldr Save % 0.706
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
39%
📊
MAMMOTH
61%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (UTA)
OILERS 45% Book Odds: +124
MAMMOTH 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 49%
Under 6.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
EDMONTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
OilersEDM (+1.5) 0 MammothUTA (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oilers Cover

77.3%

Mammoth Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)

EDM By 1 goal

9.2%

EDM By 2-3 goals

6.1%

UTA By 1 goal

19.1%

UTA By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
EDMONTON
Book Implied: 2.50
4
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
EDMONTON
Book Implied: 2.50
4
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mammoth Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mammoth Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oilers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Oilers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 EDM @ UTA 6 - 2
Oct 15, 2026 UTA @ EDM 4 - 2
Apr 7, 2026 EDM @ UTA 5 - 6
Mar 24, 2026 EDM @ UTA 5 - 2
Oct 28, 2025 UTA @ EDM 3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +25.9%
Utah: 39.7% vs Edmonton: 13.8%
Shots on Goal (L5) +25.7% more
Utah: 28.5 vs Edmonton: 22.7
Takeaways (L5) +17.6% more
Edmonton: 3.4 vs Utah: 2.8
Hits (L5) +12.7% more
Edmonton: 26.2 vs Utah: 22.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EDM Score 2.5 6
UTA Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.8 / 14.8 7.0 / 19.0
Faceoff % 48.6 / 53.9 62.5 / 37.5
Hits 22.9 / 26.2 39.0 / 24.0
Power Play % 39.7 / 13.8 0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal 28.5 / 22.7 28.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 2.8 / 3.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +124 / -148 ↑
33%TICKETS67%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
98%TICKETS2%
99%MONEY1%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
EDM
UTA
EDM
ML
62% 10-6
62% 10-6
62% 10-6
56% 9-7
ATS
44% 7-9
56% 9-7
44% 7-9
50% 8-8
TTL
31% 5-11
19% 3-13
56% 9-7
31% 5-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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