Home / NHL Projections NHL / Senators @ Flyers OTT @ PHI

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

6-3-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

1-6-3  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 2.08 0.926 --
Dan Vladar None-None 1.00 0.962 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.08 GAA Ldr 1.00
0.926 Save % Ldr 0.962
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
51%
📊
FLYERS
49%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (PHI)
SENATORS 61% Book Odds: -155
FLYERS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 60.80% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 50%
Under 5.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
SenatorsOTT (-1.5) 0 FlyersPHI (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

22.7%

Flyers Cover

77.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

OTT By 1 goal

19.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

34.1%

PHI By 1 goal

9.2%

PHI By 2-3 goals

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.50
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.50
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Senators Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Flyers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 OTT @ PHI 1 - 3
Oct 8, 2026 PHI @ OTT 1 - 2
Feb 5, 2026 OTT @ PHI 2 - 1
Nov 8, 2025 OTT @ PHI 3 - 2
Oct 23, 2025 PHI @ OTT 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +9.8% more
Ottawa: 17.1 vs Philadelphia: 15.4
Power Play % (L5) +7.4%
Ottawa: 12.4% vs Philadelphia: 4.9%
Hits (L5) +8.9% more
Philadelphia: 23.8 vs Ottawa: 21.9
Faceoff % (L5) +5.2%
Philadelphia: 52.2% vs Ottawa: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 3.5 1
PHI Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.4 / 17.1 18.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 52.2 / 47.0 43.1 / 56.9
Hits 23.8 / 21.9 28.0 / 22.0
Power Play % 4.9 / 12.4 33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 20.4 / 20.3 28.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 4.8 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → -155 / +130 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
34%TICKETS66%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
OTT
PHI
OTT
ML
53% 9-8
41% 7-10
41% 7-10
41% 7-10
ATS
41% 7-10
29% 5-12
47% 8-9
65% 11-6
TTL
56% 9-7-1
53% 9-8
44% 7-9-1
59% 10-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Amadio's Late Strike Lifts Senators Past Sabres 2-1
thetelegraph 2 hours, 37 minutes ago
Sponsors Threaten Walkout as Russia Crisis Engulfs 2027 Hockey W…
theathleticuk 13 hours, 33 minutes ago
Dominykas Pleta's Breakout Game Shines in Iowa State's First Loss
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Canucks Seek Season Sweep of Ducks Amid Prolonged Slump
deadspin 2 days, 7 hours ago
Rangers Forced to Shuffle Blue Line as Durzi Sits with Mysteriou…
yahoo 2 days, 7 hours ago