Home / NHL Projections NHL / Islanders @ Maple Leafs NYI @ TOR

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

4-3-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

3-4-2  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
@
Sergei Bobrovsky
GOALTENDER

Sergei Bobrovsky

#72 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Sorokin None-None 1.00 0.966 --
Sergei Bobrovsky None-None 3.04 0.842 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 3.04
0.966 Ldr Save % 0.842
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
55%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
45%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (NYI)
ISLANDERS 47% Book Odds: +111
MAPLE LEAFS 55% Book Odds: -123
Book Implied: 47.40% / 55.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0 49%
Under 6.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New York)
IslandersNYI (+1.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (-1.5)
New York Islanders (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

78.8%

Maple Leafs Cover

21.2%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

NYI By 1 goal

18.9%

NYI By 2-3 goals

34.9%

TOR By 1 goal

8.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.20
2.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.20
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Islanders Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Islanders (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
A
Sim Islanders (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 NYI @ TOR 4 - 1
Sep 30, 2026 NYI @ TOR 1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026 NYI @ TOR 3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026 TOR @ NYI 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +11.1% more
New York: 22.6 vs Toronto: 20.1
Faceoff % (L5) +2.4%
New York: 55.7% vs Toronto: 53.3%
Takeaways (L5) +27.3% more
Toronto: 4.8 vs New York: 3.8
Power Play % (L5) +18.4%
Toronto: 31.4% vs New York: 13.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 3.8 4
TOR Score 2.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.4 / 14.1 18.0 / 4.0
Faceoff % 53.3 / 55.7 51.1 / 48.9
Hits 20.1 / 22.6 18.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 3142.0 / 1298.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.7 / 25.8 29.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.8 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +111 / -123 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
82%TICKETS18%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYI
TOR
NYI
ML
59% 10-7
64% 9-5
41% 7-10
64% 9-5
ATS
47% 8-9
43% 6-8
65% 11-6
50% 7-7
TTL
47% 8-9
23% 3-10-1
41% 7-10
77% 10-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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