Home / NHL Projections NHL / Canucks @ Lightning VAN @ TB

VANCOUVER

CANUCKSVAN

2-7-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 4:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

6-2-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Kevin Lankinen
GOALTENDER

Kevin Lankinen

#32 | Goaltender
@
Dennis Hildeby
GOALTENDER

Dennis Hildeby

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Kevin Lankinen None-None 4.24 0.886 --
Dennis Hildeby None-None 2.01 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.24 GAA Ldr 2.01
0.886 Ldr Save % 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANUCKS
21%
📊
LIGHTNING
79%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (TB)
CANUCKS 24% Book Odds: +309
LIGHTNING 78% Book Odds: -363
Book Implied: 24.40% / 78.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
VANCOUVER
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vancouver)
CanucksVAN (+2.5) 0 LightningTB (-2.5)
Vancouver Canucks (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canucks Cover

77.3%

Lightning Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VAN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1 goal

9.2%

VAN By 2-3 goals

6.1%

TB By 1 goal

19.1%

TB By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
VANCOUVER
Book Implied: 2
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
2
VANCOUVER
Book Implied: 2
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lightning Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Lightning Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Canucks (+2.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
A
Sim Canucks (+2.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 VAN @ TB 2 - 4
Mar 19, 2026 TB @ VAN 6 - 2
Nov 16, 2025 VAN @ TB 6 - 2
Dec 8, 2024 TB @ VAN 4 - 2
Oct 15, 2024 VAN @ TB 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +46.5% more
Tampa Bay: 30.6 vs Vancouver: 20.9
Blocked Shots (L5) +28.2% more
Vancouver: 15.9 vs Tampa Bay: 11.4
Power Play % (L5) +5.9%
Vancouver: 12.9% vs Tampa Bay: 7.0%
Faceoff % (L5) +2.7%
Vancouver: 45.9% vs Tampa Bay: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 2.5 2
TB Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.4 / 15.9 21.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 43.2 / 45.9 62.3 / 37.7
Hits 23.7 / 24.1 21.0 / 17.0
Power Play % 7.0 / 12.9 100.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 30.6 / 20.9 35.0 / 14.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +300 / -380 → +309 / -363 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
45%TICKETS55%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
VAN
TB
VAN
ML
57% 8-6
82% 14-3
79% 11-3
65% 11-6
ATS
50% 7-7
47% 8-9
50% 7-7
47% 8-9
TTL
46% 6-7-1
47% 8-9
54% 7-6-1
53% 9-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Larkin Trade Stalls as Four Approved Teams Show Little Urg…
yahoo 5 hours, 32 minutes ago
Sullivan Flags Rangers' Recurring Stick Penalties Despite League…
headtopics 19 hours, 11 minutes ago
Kucherov Shines at Home as Lightning Extend Home Win Streak to S…
players_bio 19 hours, 39 minutes ago
Gauthier's Hat Trick Heroics Lift Ducks Over Canucks in Thrillin…
yourvalley_net 23 hours, 46 minutes ago
Gauthier's Hat Trick Heroics Lift Ducks Over Canucks in High-Sco…
yahoo 23 hours, 46 minutes ago