Home / NHL Projections NHL / Devils @ Capitals NJ @ WSH

NEW JERSEY

DEVILSNJ

4-4-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

5-3-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Jake Allen
GOALTENDER

Jake Allen

#34 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jake Allen None-None 4.00 0.840 --
Logan Thompson None-None 2.00 0.935 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.00 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.840 Save % Ldr 0.935
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
DEVILS
41%
📊
CAPITALS
59%
▲ Edge: +5.20% (WSH)
DEVILS 49% Book Odds: +103
CAPITALS 53% Book Odds: -114
Book Implied: 49.30% / 53.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0 42%
Under 6.0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Washington)
DevilsNJ (-1.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+1.5)
Washington Capitals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Devils Cover

21.2%

Capitals Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

NJ By 1 goal

8.6%

NJ By 2-3 goals

5.5%

WSH By 1 goal

18.9%

WSH By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 3.80
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.20
Simulated Score
3
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 3.80
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Capitals Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Devils Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 NJ @ WSH 2 - 4
Apr 2, 2026 WSH @ NJ 3 - 7
Mar 20, 2026 NJ @ WSH 1 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 WSH @ NJ 4 - 3
Nov 15, 2025 NJ @ WSH 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +46.0% more
Washington: 17.5 vs New Jersey: 12.0
Hits (L5) +35.1% more
Washington: 19.4 vs New Jersey: 14.3
Faceoff % (L5) +4.3%
Washington: 53.9% vs New Jersey: 49.6%
Takeaways (L5) +51.3% more
New Jersey: 4.7 vs Washington: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NJ Score 2.2 2
WSH Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.5 / 12.0 22.0 / 8.0
Faceoff % 53.9 / 49.6 46.7 / 53.3
Hits 19.4 / 14.3 19.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 14.4 / 31.0 50.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 25.6 / 34.3 25.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 2.3 / 4.7 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148 → +103 / -114 ↓
22%TICKETS78%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
73%MONEY27%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NJ
WSH
NJ
ML
71% 10-4
53% 8-7
50% 7-7
60% 9-6
ATS
50% 7-7
47% 7-8
64% 9-5
53% 8-7
TTL
50% 6-6-2
38% 5-8-2
25% 3-9-2
46% 6-7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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