Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ N Dakota St UTEP @ NDSU

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-7  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Fargodome
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

N DAKOTA STNDSU

7-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
@
Aaron Bickerton
KEY GAME

Aaron Bickerton

#39 | Punter
Player
Brady Braun None-None
Aaron Bickerton None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
13%
📊
N DAKOTA ST
87%
▲ Edge: +4.80% (UTEP)
UTEP 8% Book Odds: +1200
N DAKOTA ST 96% Book Odds: -2381
Book Implied: 7.70% / 96%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 44.5 70%
Under 44.5 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+20.5
UTEP
Book Spread
+23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UTEP)
UTEPUTEP (+23.5) 0 N Dakota StNDSU (-23.5)
UTEP Miners (+23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

92.8%

N Dakota St Cover

7.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP +20.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

UTEP By 1-6 points

4.0%

UTEP By 7-13 points

1.9%

NDSU By 1-6 points

8.2%

NDSU By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16
UTEP
Book Implied: 10.50
36.5
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
10
UTEP
Book Implied: 10.50
38
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI N Dakota St Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim N Dakota St Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UTEP (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +20.5
C
Sim N Dakota St (-23.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.5
A
Sim o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 UTEP @ NDSU 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
North Dakota State: 0.4 vs UTEP: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 16.0 7
NDSU Score 36.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 17.3 19.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 135.8 / 136.6 141.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 318.0 / 320.3 381.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.2 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6667 → +1200 / -2381 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +23.5 / -23.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 44.5 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-9-0 (10.0%)
Margin: -19.4 ATS +/-: -5.6
NDSU Advantage
8-2-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.4 ATS +/-: -5.6
NDSU Advantage
4-5-1 (44.4%)
Margin: 15.4 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
NDSU
2-8-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
UTEP
NDSU
UTEP
ML
100% 7-0
100% 10-0
90% 9-1
70% 7-3
ATS
43% 3-4
10% 1-9
90% 9-1
20% 2-8
TTL
29% 2-5
70% 7-3
10% 1-9
60% 6-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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