Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Navy ND @ NAVY

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

7-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

2-6  |  Home

13
Key Game
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
@
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
Player
Jasper Scaife None-None
Jacob Carlson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
84%
📊
NAVY
16%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (NAVY)
NOTRE DAME 99% Book Odds: -7692
NAVY 4% Book Odds: +2200
Book Implied: 98.70% / 4.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
55.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 55.0 40%
Under 55.0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.5
NAVY
Book Spread
+31
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.5 points (Navy)
Notre DameND (-31) 0 NavyNAVY (+31)
Navy Midshipmen (+31) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

10.6%

Navy Cover

89.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NAVY +17.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

ND By 1-6 points

10.4%

ND By 7-13 points

17.2%

NAVY By 1-6 points

5.6%

NAVY By 7-13 points

3.0%

AI Model Projected Score
33.5
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 43
16
NAVY
Book Implied: 12
Simulated Score
44
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 43
12
NAVY
Book Implied: 12
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Notre Dame Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim Notre Dame Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Navy (+31) Win
Proj Spread: +17.5
A
Sim Notre Dame (-31) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.0 Win
Proj Total: 49.5
B
Sim o55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 ND @ NAVY 35 - 13
Nov 8, 2025 NAVY @ ND 10 - 49
Oct 26, 2024 ND @ NAVY 51 - 14
Aug 26, 2023 NAVY @ ND 3 - 42
Nov 12, 2022 ND @ NAVY 35 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +86.0% more
Navy: 1.3 vs Notre Dame: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.3% more
Navy: 312.6 vs Notre Dame: 203.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 33.5 35
NAVY Score 16.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 23.1 15.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 312.6 / 203.9 212.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 448.5 / 456.6 245.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -7692 / +2200 → -7692 / +2200
95%TICKETS5%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -28.5 / +28.5 → -31 / +31 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 55 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 24.8 ATS +/-: -1.2
NAVY
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 24.8 ATS +/-: -1.2
NAVY
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.1
NAVY
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
ND
NAVY
ND
ML
56% 5-4
89% 8-1
100% 9-0
89% 8-1
ATS
75% 6-2-1
56% 5-4
62% 5-3-1
56% 5-4
TTL
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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