Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ GA Southern APP @ GASO

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

5-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 6:30 PM ET
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

4-4  |  Home

19
Key Game
Jaxson Dunn
KEY GAME

Jaxson Dunn

#40 | Punter
@
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Jaxson Dunn None-None
Tripp Bryant None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
41%
📊
GA SOUTHERN
59%
▲ Edge: +7.20% (APP)
APP STATE 34% Book Odds: +195
GA SOUTHERN 69% Book Odds: -221
Book Implied: 33.90% / 68.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 42%
Under 54.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (App State)
App StateAPP (+5.5) 0 GA SouthernGASO (-5.5)
App State Mountaineers (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

61.2%

GA Southern Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around APP +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-6 points

14.7%

APP By 7-13 points

12.1%

GASO By 1-6 points

17.0%

GASO By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
APP STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
27.5
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
24
APP STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
34
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI GA Southern Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim GA Southern Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI App State (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim GA Southern (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 APP @ GASO 3 - 19
Dec 29, 2025 GASO @ APP 29 - 10
Nov 6, 2025 GASO @ APP 25 - 23
Nov 30, 2024 APP @ GASO 20 - 29
Nov 25, 2023 GASO @ APP 27 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Georgia Southern: 1.1 vs App State: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Georgia Southern: 23.4 vs App State: 21.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 23.5 3
GASO Score 27.5 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 21.3 25.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 128.7 / 132.0 102.0 / 6.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.73 / 0.27
Total Yards 408.1 / 385.6 427.0 / 222.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +136 / -162 → +195 / -221 ↑
19%TICKETS81%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
30%TICKETS70%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +2.9
GASO
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +2.9
GASO Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
GASO
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GASO
APP
GASO
APP
ML
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
12% 1-7
12% 1-7
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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