Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia Tech @ Pitt GT @ PITT

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

2-6  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

6-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Alex Bacchetta
KEY GAME

Alex Bacchetta

#47 | Punter
@
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
Player
Alex Bacchetta None-None
Gabe Russo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA TECH
30%
📊
PITT
70%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (GT)
GEORGIA TECH 26% Book Odds: +280
PITT 77% Book Odds: -329
Book Implied: 26.30% / 76.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 47%
Under 54.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Georgia Tech)
Georgia TechGT (+9.5) 0 PittPITT (-9.5)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Tech Cover

74.0%

Pitt Cover

26.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GT +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

GT By 1-6 points

11.5%

GT By 7-13 points

8.0%

PITT By 1-6 points

15.7%

PITT By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 22.50
31
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
31
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 22.50
30
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pitt Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia Tech Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia Tech (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Georgia Tech (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 GT @ PITT 11 - 34
Nov 22, 2025 PITT @ GT 42 - 28
Oct 1, 2022 GT @ PITT 26 - 21
Oct 2, 2021 PITT @ GT 52 - 21
Dec 10, 2020 PITT @ GT 34 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Pittsburgh: 133.6 vs Georgia Tech: 120.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GT Score 22.0 11
PITT Score 31.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 21.7 26.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 133.6 / 120.8 281.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.35 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 407.2 / 388.9 461.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +205 / -250 → +280 / -329 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GT
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -8.8
PITT Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GT
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -8.8
PITT Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GT
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +2.5
PITT
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
GT
PITT
GT
ML
70% 7-3
44% 4-5
50% 5-5
44% 4-5
ATS
50% 5-5
22% 2-7
30% 3-7
56% 5-4
TTL
40% 4-6
56% 5-4
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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