Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ Iowa State OKST @ ISU

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

5-3  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

4-4  |  Home

51
Key Game
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
@
Jonah DuPont
KEY GAME

Jonah DuPont

#99 | Punter
Player
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
Jonah DuPont None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
39%
📊
IOWA STATE
61%
▲ Edge: +36.90% (ISU)
OKLAHOMA ST 79% Book Odds: -368
IOWA STATE 24% Book Odds: +310
Book Implied: 78.60% / 24.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
58.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 58.0 41%
Under 58.0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Iowa State)
Oklahoma StOKST (-10) 0 Iowa StateISU (+10)
Iowa State Cyclones (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

36.0%

Iowa State Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

OKST By 1-6 points

14.2%

OKST By 7-13 points

11.3%

ISU By 1-6 points

16.9%

ISU By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 34
29.5
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
25
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 34
31
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Iowa State (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Sim u58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 OKST @ ISU 49 - 51
Nov 29, 2025 ISU @ OKST 20 - 13
Sep 23, 2023 OKST @ ISU 27 - 34
Nov 12, 2022 ISU @ OKST 14 - 20
Oct 23, 2021 OKST @ ISU 21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +41.0% more
Oklahoma State: 526.0 vs Iowa State: 310.5
First Downs (L5) +29.5% more
Oklahoma State: 25.5 vs Iowa State: 18.0
Turnovers (L5) +22.2% more
Oklahoma State: 1.1 vs Iowa State: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.2% more
Oklahoma State: 169.5 vs Iowa State: 135.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 24.5 49
ISU Score 29.5 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 25.5 24.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 135.2 / 169.5 272.0 / 210.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 310.5 / 526.0 581.0 / 533.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -355 / +280 → -368 / +310 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5 → -10 / +10 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 58 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 16.7 ATS +/-: +7.9
ISU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 16.7 ATS +/-: +7.9
ISU
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +11.5
ISU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +8.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
OKST
ISU
OKST
ML
100% 9-0
44% 4-5
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
ATS
62% 5-3-1
33% 3-6
38% 3-5-1
44% 4-5
TTL
44% 4-5
22% 2-7
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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