Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ USC OSU @ USC

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

6-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

7-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Connor Hawkins
KEY GAME

Connor Hawkins

#96 | Place kicker
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Connor Hawkins None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
74%
📊
USC
26%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (OSU)
OHIO STATE 70% Book Odds: -231
USC 33% Book Odds: +208
Book Implied: 69.80% / 32.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
51.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 51.0 54%
Under 51.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Ohio State)
Ohio StateOSU (-6.5) 0 USCUSC (+6.5)
Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

78.4%

USC Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OSU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

OSU By 1-6 points

14.7%

OSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

USC By 1-6 points

10.0%

USC By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
32
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 28.80
21
USC
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
33
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 28.80
31
USC
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Ohio State Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio State (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim USC (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o51.0 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 OSU @ USC 18 - 30
Dec 29, 2017 USC @ OSU 7 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.7% more
Ohio State: 140.7 vs USC: 84.8
Turnovers (L5) +21.6% more
Ohio State: 1.4 vs USC: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Ohio State: 423.2 vs USC: 365.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 32.0 18
USC Score 21.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 22.8 15.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 84.8 / 140.7 116.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.34 / 0.66
Total Yards 365.6 / 423.2 338.0 / 464.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -238 / +195 → -231 / +208 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -6.5 / +6.5
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.3 ATS +/-: -3.6
USC Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 17.3 ATS +/-: -3.6
USC
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +2.3
USC
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
OSU
USC
OSU
ML
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
ATS
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
TTL
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oregon Leads Pack of Three-Loss Teams Eyeing Chaos in Expanded C…
foxnews 6 hours, 21 minutes ago
Week 11 College Football: Top Matchups, Playoff Implications, an…
yahoo 1 day, 6 hours ago
Northwestern's Aidan Chiles Out for Ohio State Showdown, Nicco M…
yahoo 2 days ago
Lincoln Riley: USC Must Handle Indiana's Deep, Talented Roster i…
headtopics 3 days, 6 hours ago
CFP Rankings Shakeup: Georgia Takes Top Spot, Utah Surges in Sec…
sportingnews 3 days, 6 hours ago