Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ North Carolina MIA @ UNC

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

8-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:30 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

4-4  |  Home

35
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Aeron Burrell
KEY GAME

Aeron Burrell

#92 | Place kicker
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Aeron Burrell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
87%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
13%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (MIA)
MIAMI 85% Book Odds: -546
NORTH CAROLINA 19% Book Odds: +436
Book Implied: 84.50% / 18.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 38%
Under 52.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
-13
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
MiamiMIA (-13) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+13)
Miami Hurricanes (-13) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

92.3%

North Carolina Cover

7.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

8.6%

MIA By 7-13 points

15.4%

UNC By 1-6 points

4.2%

UNC By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
34
MIAMI
Book Implied: 32.80
14
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 19.80
Simulated Score
37
MIAMI
Book Implied: 32.80
22
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 19.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami (-13) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
B
Sim Miami (-13) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 MIA @ UNC 38 - 35
Oct 14, 2023 MIA @ UNC 31 - 41
Oct 8, 2022 UNC @ MIA 27 - 24
Oct 16, 2021 MIA @ UNC 42 - 45
Dec 12, 2020 UNC @ MIA 62 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.5% more
Miami: 186.0 vs North Carolina: 103.2
Total Yards (L5) +36.5% more
Miami: 522.0 vs North Carolina: 331.4
First Downs (L5) +27.4% more
Miami: 26.4 vs North Carolina: 19.2
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
Miami: 0.6 vs North Carolina: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 34.0 38
UNC Score 14.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 26.4 27.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 103.2 / 186.0 66.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.73 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 331.4 / 522.0 407.0 / 416.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -625 / +455 → -546 / +436 ↑
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14.5 / +14.5 → -13 / +13 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 52.5 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 25.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
UNC
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 25.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
UNC
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
8-1-0
O: 88.9% / U: 11.1% Total +/-: +10.4
UNC
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
MIA
UNC
MIA
ML
56% 5-4
89% 8-1
67% 6-3
100% 9-0
ATS
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
TTL
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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