Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Jax State @ New Mexico St JXST @ NMSU

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

6-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Wed, Oct 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-5  |  Home

0
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Brody Richter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
60%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
40%
JAX STATE 60% Book Odds: -152
NEW MEXICO ST 42% Book Odds: +137
Book Implied: 60.30% / 42.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
Over 50.5 50%
Under 50.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Jacksonville State)
Jax StateJXST (-3) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3)
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

62.6%

New Mexico St Cover

37.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JXST -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

JXST By 1-6 points

16.9%

JXST By 7-13 points

18.3%

NMSU By 1-6 points

14.4%

NMSU By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
23
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
30
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
31
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jax State Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico St Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jax State (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim New Mexico St (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.5
D
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 28, 2026 JXST @ NMSU 24 - 0
Oct 9, 2024 NMSU @ JXST 13 - 54
Nov 25, 2023 JXST @ NMSU 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Jacksonville State: 405.5 vs New Mexico State: 344.8
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
Jacksonville State: 22.0 vs New Mexico State: 18.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.4 vs New Mexico State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +59.9% more
New Mexico State: 2.2 vs Jacksonville State: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 27.5 24
NMSU Score 23.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 22.0 11.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 162.7 / 161.3 192.0 / 324.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 344.8 / 405.5 221.0 / 433.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -152 / +137 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3 / +3
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50.5
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +2.7
NMSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +2.7
NMSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -2.4
NMSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
JXST
NMSU
JXST
ML
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
ATS
71% 5-2
67% 4-2-1
50% 4-4
43% 3-4-1
TTL
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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