SEATTLE
KRAKENSEA
5-2-1 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
5-2-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Philipp Grubauer
#31 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer | None-None | 3.86 | 0.886 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.90 | 0.889 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.86
GAA
Ldr 2.90
0.886
Save %
Ldr 0.889
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
KRAKEN
29%
LIGHTNING
71%
KRAKEN
31%
Book Odds: +221
LIGHTNING
72%
Book Odds: -252
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
Over 6.0
49%
Under 6.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
SEA By 1 goal
8.6%
SEA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
TB By 1 goal
18.9%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
2.2
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.20
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.20
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Lightning
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Kraken
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim
Kraken (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 15, 2026
SEA @ TB
3 - 4
Mar 26, 2026
SEA @ TB
4 - 3
Mar 17, 2026
TB @ SEA
6 - 2
Feb 23, 2025
SEA @ TB
1 - 4
Dec 14, 2024
TB @ SEA
5 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+33.1% more
Tampa Bay: 20.6
vs
Seattle: 15.5
Takeaways (L5)
+37.5% more
Seattle: 5.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+18.6% more
Seattle: 16.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 13.6
Power Play % (L5)
+7.0%
Seattle: 17.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
2.2
3
TB Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.6 / 16.8
7.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
44.0 / 48.1
41.7 / 58.3
Hits
20.6 / 15.5
30.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
10.5 / 17.5
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
28.5 / 28.0
35.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 5.6
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +200 / -245
→
+221 / -252
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SEA
TB
SEA
ML
54%
7-6
57%
8-6
85%
11-2
43%
6-8
ATS
46%
6-7
50%
7-7
54%
7-6
64%
9-5
TTL
46%
6-7
23%
3-10-1
54%
7-6
46%
6-7-1
Contextual Game News
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