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NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

3-3-1  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Oct 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

6-2-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Semyon Varlamov
GOALTENDER

Semyon Varlamov

#40 | Goaltender
@
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Semyon Varlamov None-None 0.92 0.947 --
Linus Ullmark None-None 0.92 0.952 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.92 GAA 0.92
0.947 Save % Ldr 0.952
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
43%
📊
SENATORS
57%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (NYI)
ISLANDERS 41% Book Odds: +145
SENATORS 62% Book Odds: -161
Book Implied: 40.80% / 61.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5 59%
Under 5.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
OTTAWA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Ottawa)
IslandersNYI (+1.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (-1.5)
Ottawa Senators (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Islanders Cover

21.2%

Senators Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

NYI By 1 goal

8.6%

NYI By 2-3 goals

5.5%

OTT By 1 goal

18.9%

OTT By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3.8
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Senators Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Senators Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Senators (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Islanders (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 15, 2026 NYI @ OTT 1 - 2
Apr 11, 2026 OTT @ NYI 3 - 0
Mar 19, 2026 NYI @ OTT 2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025 NYI @ OTT 5 - 4
Jan 14, 2025 OTT @ NYI 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +48.9% more
Ottawa: 4.7 vs New York: 3.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +27.9% more
Ottawa: 18.1 vs New York: 14.2
Shots on Goal (L5) +25.7% more
New York: 28.1 vs Ottawa: 20.9
Faceoff % (L5) +4.2%
New York: 54.1% vs Ottawa: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYI Score 2.2 1
OTT Score 3.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.1 / 14.2 15.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 49.9 / 54.1 41.2 / 58.8
Hits 21.8 / 22.4 22.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 1855.0 / 1948.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 20.9 / 28.1 19.0 / 21.0
Takeaways 4.7 / 3.2 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +145 / -161 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
74%TICKETS26%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
96%TICKETS4%
97%MONEY3%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
NYI
OTT
NYI
ML
44% 7-9
64% 9-5
44% 7-9
64% 9-5
ATS
31% 5-11
43% 6-8
62% 10-6
50% 7-7
TTL
50% 8-8
23% 3-10-1
56% 9-7
77% 10-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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