Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Raiders LAR @ LV

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

3-4  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

3-4  |  Home

21
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Matt Gay
KEY GAME

Matt Gay

#14 | Place kicker
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Matt Gay None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
71%
📊
RAIDERS
29%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (LAR)
RAMS 63% Book Odds: -169
RAIDERS 40% Book Odds: +152
Book Implied: 62.80% / 39.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.5 (Under)
Over 48.5 41%
Under 48.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

60.1%

Raiders Cover

39.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAR -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

LAR By 1-6 points

17.0%

LAR By 7-13 points

17.8%

LV By 1-6 points

14.9%

LV By 7-13 points

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
24.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 26
21.2
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
27
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 26
19
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rams Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Rams Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim Rams (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 LAR @ LV 35 - 21
Oct 20, 2024 LV @ LAR 15 - 20
Dec 8, 2022 LV @ LAR 16 - 17
Sep 10, 2018 LAR @ LV 33 - 13
Nov 30, 2014 LV @ LAR 0 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.2% more
Los Angeles: 104.1 vs Las Vegas: 67.4
First Downs (L5) +11.9% more
Los Angeles: 24.4 vs Las Vegas: 21.5
Total Yards (L5) +11.5% more
Los Angeles: 387.2 vs Las Vegas: 342.6
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Las Vegas: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 24.8 35
LV Score 21.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 24.4 18.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 275.2 / 283.1 302.0 / 187.0
Rushing Yards 67.4 / 104.1 48.0 / 199.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 342.6 / 387.2 350.0 / 386.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.7 5.5 / 5.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -325 / +260 → -169 / +152 ↑
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 48.5 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
LV
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
LV Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.4
LV
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
LAR
LV
LAR
ML
71% 5-2
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
ATS
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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