Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Cardinals DEN @ ARI

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

5-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 4:05 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

2-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Blake Gillikin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
75%
📊
CARDINALS
25%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (DEN)
BRONCOS 70% Book Odds: -230
CARDINALS 35% Book Odds: +190
Book Implied: 69.70% / 34.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 56%
Under 44.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DENVER
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-4.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+4.5)
Denver Broncos (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

71.6%

Cardinals Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.1%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.5%

ARI By 1-6 points

12.2%

ARI By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27
DENVER
Book Implied: 24.50
19
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
17
DENVER
Book Implied: 24.50
25
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Broncos Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Cardinals Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Broncos (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
B
Sim Cardinals (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 DEN @ ARI 30 - 16
Dec 18, 2022 ARI @ DEN 15 - 24
Oct 18, 2018 DEN @ ARI 45 - 10
Oct 5, 2014 ARI @ DEN 20 - 41
Dec 12, 2010 DEN @ ARI 13 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.0% more
Arizona: 1.2 vs Denver: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +44.5% more
Arizona: 224.1 vs Denver: 155.1
Total Yards (L5) +33.5% more
Arizona: 322.8 vs Denver: 241.8
First Downs (L5) +28.2% more
Arizona: 21.0 vs Denver: 16.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 27.0 30
ARI Score 19.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 16.4 24.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 224.1 / 155.1 259.0 / 218.0
Rushing Yards 98.7 / 86.7 94.0 / 159.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 322.8 / 241.8 353.0 / 377.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.0 4.7 / 6.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -375 / +295 → -230 / +190 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 44.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARI
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
ARI
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.6
ARI
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
DEN
ARI
DEN
ML
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
ATS
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
TTL
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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