Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Saints PIT @ NO

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

5-2  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sun, Oct 25 • 9:30 AM ET
Stade de France
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-5  |  Home

10
Key Game
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
@
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
Player
Cameron Johnston None-None
Ryan Wright None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
57%
📊
SAINTS
43%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (NO)
STEELERS 62% Book Odds: -162
SAINTS 42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 61.80% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.4
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 (Over)
Over 43.5 64%
Under 43.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
SteelersPIT (-3) 0 SaintsNO (+3)
Line aligns with book spread (+3)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

41.5%

Saints Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

PIT By 1-6 points

17.0%

PIT By 7-13 points

17.5%

NO By 1-6 points

15.3%

NO By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 23.20
22.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 20.20
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 23.20
23
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 20.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Steelers Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (-3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Saints (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.4
B
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 25, 2026 PIT @ NO 16 - 10
Nov 13, 2022 NO @ PIT 10 - 20
Dec 23, 2018 PIT @ NO 28 - 31
Nov 30, 2014 NO @ PIT 35 - 32
Oct 31, 2010 PIT @ NO 10 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.1% more
Pittsburgh: 221.4 vs New Orleans: 179.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.6% more
Pittsburgh: 5.1 vs New Orleans: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Pittsburgh: 323.6 vs New Orleans: 290.4
Turnovers (L5) +77.0% more
New Orleans: 1.7 vs Pittsburgh: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 25.2 16
NO Score 22.2 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 19.8 19.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 179.1 / 221.4 263.0 / 195.0
Rushing Yards 111.3 / 102.2 18.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 290.4 / 323.6 281.0 / 343.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.1 4.9 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -162 / +136 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 43.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
NO
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
NO
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.9
NO
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
PIT
NO
PIT
ML
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
ATS
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
TTL
0% 0-7
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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