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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

3-3-1  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Oct 13 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

5-2-0  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
@
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Anthony Stolarz None-None 5.22 0.821 --
Karel Vejmelka None-None 4.00 0.846 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.22 GAA Ldr 4.00
0.821 Save % Ldr 0.846
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
31%
📊
MAMMOTH
69%
▲ Edge: +8.50% (UTA)
MAPLE LEAFS 42% Book Odds: +137
MAMMOTH 60% Book Odds: -152
Book Implied: 42.20% / 60.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5 34%
Under 6.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Maple LeafsTOR (+1.5) 0 MammothUTA (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

77.3%

Mammoth Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

9.2%

TOR By 2-3 goals

6.1%

UTA By 1 goal

19.1%

UTA By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
3.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
4
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mammoth Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Mammoth Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Mammoth (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2026 TOR @ UTA 4 - 5
Jan 13, 2026 TOR @ UTA 1 - 6
Nov 5, 2025 UTA @ TOR 3 - 5
Mar 10, 2025 TOR @ UTA 4 - 3
Nov 24, 2024 UTA @ TOR 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +44.1% more
Utah: 28.0 vs Toronto: 19.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +19.8% more
Utah: 32.0 vs Toronto: 26.7
Power Play % (L5) +13.7%
Utah: 39.4% vs Toronto: 25.7%
Faceoff % (L5) +2.4%
Utah: 54.2% vs Toronto: 51.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.0 4
UTA Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.3 / 16.7 10.0 / 15.0
Faceoff % 54.2 / 51.9 48.1 / 51.9
Hits 28.0 / 19.5 17.0 / 14.0
Power Play % 39.4 / 25.7 0.0 / 40.0
Shots on Goal 32.0 / 26.7 28.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 4.8 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +137 / -152 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
76%TICKETS24%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
TOR
UTA
TOR
ML
64% 9-5
56% 9-7
64% 9-5
38% 6-10
ATS
43% 6-8
44% 7-9
50% 7-7
69% 11-5
TTL
29% 4-10
50% 8-8
57% 8-6
38% 6-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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