PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
3-3-1 | Road
3
CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKSCHI
2-5-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sergei Murashov
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Spencer Knight
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Murashov | None-None | 4.14 | 0.789 | -- |
| Spencer Knight | None-None | 3.00 | 0.889 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.14
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.789
Save %
Ldr 0.889
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
65%
BLACKHAWKS
35%
▲ Edge: +3.80% (PIT)
PENGUINS
61%
Book Odds: -157
BLACKHAWKS
41%
Book Odds: +142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5
50%
Under 6.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CHI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
PIT By 1 goal
19.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
34.1%
CHI By 1 goal
9.2%
CHI By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Chicago
2.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 4
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Penguins
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Blackhawks
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blackhawks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Blackhawks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 13, 2026
PIT @ CHI
3 - 5
Jan 29, 2026
CHI @ PIT
2 - 6
Dec 28, 2025
PIT @ CHI
7 - 3
Apr 8, 2025
CHI @ PIT
0 - 5
Apr 6, 2025
PIT @ CHI
1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+27.9% more
Pittsburgh: 15.6
vs
Chicago: 11.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.9% more
Pittsburgh: 26.1
vs
Chicago: 22.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.6%
Pittsburgh: 45.4%
vs
Chicago: 42.8%
Power Play % (L5)
+2.5%
Pittsburgh: 9.9%
vs
Chicago: 7.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
3
CHI Score
2.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.3 / 15.6
14.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
42.8 / 45.4
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
14.5 / 11.7
17.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
7.4 / 9.9
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.8 / 26.1
20.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.0
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120
→
-157 / +142
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
PIT
CHI
PIT
ML
71%
10-4
79%
11-3
57%
8-6
57%
8-6
ATS
57%
8-6
50%
7-7
64%
9-5
71%
10-4
TTL
31%
4-9-1
29%
4-10
62%
8-5-1
43%
6-8
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