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ST. LOUIS

BLUESSTL

3-2-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Oct 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

5-2-0  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Joel Hofer
GOALTENDER

Joel Hofer

#30 | Goaltender
@
Samuel Ersson
GOALTENDER

Samuel Ersson

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Joel Hofer None-None 2.03 0.882 --
Samuel Ersson None-None 7.13 0.731 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.03 Ldr GAA 7.13
0.882 Ldr Save % 0.731
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
28%
📊
SENATORS
72%
▲ Edge: +24.10% (OTT)
BLUES 55% Book Odds: -121
SENATORS 48% Book Odds: +109
Book Implied: 54.80% / 47.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.0 49%
Under 6.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
OTTAWA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Ottawa)
BluesSTL (-1.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+1.5)
Ottawa Senators (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blues Cover

22.7%

Senators Cover

77.3%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

STL By 1 goal

9.2%

STL By 2-3 goals

6.1%

OTT By 1 goal

19.1%

OTT By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
3.5
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2.20
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.80
3
OTTAWA
Book Implied: 2.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Senators Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Blues Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Senators (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim Senators (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 13, 2026 STL @ OTT 7 - 2
Dec 6, 2025 STL @ OTT 2 - 1
Nov 28, 2025 OTT @ STL 3 - 4
Oct 2, 2025 OTT @ STL 1 - 7
Jan 3, 2025 OTT @ STL 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +106.3% more
Ottawa: 21.2 vs St. Louis: 10.3
Hits (L5) +25.0% more
Ottawa: 24.7 vs St. Louis: 19.7
Takeaways (L5) +12.9% more
Ottawa: 4.5 vs St. Louis: 4.0
Faceoff % (L5) +8.8%
Ottawa: 53.4% vs St. Louis: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 2.0 7
OTT Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 21.2 / 10.3 12.0 / 16.0
Faceoff % 53.4 / 44.7 42.9 / 57.1
Hits 24.7 / 19.7 16.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 15.3 / 7.4 25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 22.8 / 26.2 17.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.5 / 4.0 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -130 → -121 / +109 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 6 ↑
87%TICKETS13%
87%MONEY13%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
STL
OTT
STL
ML
47% 7-8
50% 7-7
47% 7-8
64% 9-5
ATS
33% 5-10
43% 6-8
60% 9-6
50% 7-7
TTL
53% 8-7
38% 5-8-1
60% 9-6
69% 9-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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