WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
3-3-0 | Road
2
CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
6-1-1 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Pyotr Kochetkov
#52 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.07 | 0.912 | -- |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | None-None | 2.00 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.07
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.912 Ldr
Save %
0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
34%
HURRICANES
66%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (CAR)
CAPITALS
42%
Book Odds: +136
HURRICANES
60%
Book Odds: -151
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.0
42%
Under 6.0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
9.2%
WSH By 2-3 goals
6.1%
CAR By 1 goal
19.1%
CAR By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.20
Carolina
3.5
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.20
Carolina
3
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Hurricanes
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Hurricanes
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Capitals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.5
C
Sim
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 13, 2026
WSH @ CAR
2 - 4
Oct 2, 2026
WSH @ CAR
5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026
CAR @ WSH
3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025
WSH @ CAR
4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+97.0% more
Carolina: 5.3
vs
Washington: 2.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.4% more
Carolina: 32.5
vs
Washington: 29.4
Power Play % (L5)
+7.2%
Carolina: 20.8%
vs
Washington: 13.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+38.2% more
Washington: 16.1
vs
Carolina: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.0
2
CAR Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.0 / 16.1
12.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
51.3 / 50.3
44.3 / 55.7
Hits
18.1 / 24.3
25.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
20.8 / 13.6
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.5 / 29.4
35.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 2.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148
→
+136 / -151
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6
↓
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
WSH
CAR
WSH
ML
80%
12-3
83%
10-2
40%
6-9
42%
5-7
ATS
47%
7-8
58%
7-5
60%
9-6
67%
8-4
TTL
36%
5-9-1
40%
4-6-2
57%
8-6-1
20%
2-8-2
Contextual Game News
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Theo Fleury's Hall of Fame Snub: A Glaring Oversight in Hockey H…