Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Texas St USU @ TXST

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

2-5  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:30 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

4-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Kian Afrookhteh
KEY GAME

Kian Afrookhteh

#19 | Place kicker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
Player
Kian Afrookhteh None-None
Tom Flintoff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
26%
📊
TEXAS ST
74%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (USU)
UTAH STATE 18% Book Odds: +470
TEXAS ST 87% Book Odds: -649
Book Implied: 17.50% / 86.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.1 (Under)
Over 59.5 37%
Under 59.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Utah State)
Utah StateUSU (+14.5) 0 Texas StTXST (-14.5)
Utah State Aggies (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

78.4%

Texas St Cover

21.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

USU By 1-6 points

10.0%

USU By 7-13 points

6.6%

TXST By 1-6 points

14.7%

TXST By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 22.50
32.2
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 37
Simulated Score
21
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 22.50
40
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 37
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas St Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas St Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah State (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Sim Texas St (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.4
B
Sim o59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 USU @ TXST 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +176.6% more
Texas State: 339.2 vs Utah State: 122.6
Total Yards (L5) +101.2% more
Texas State: 609.3 vs Utah State: 302.9
First Downs (L5) +98.4% more
Texas State: 29.2 vs Utah State: 14.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +25.0% more
Texas State: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 21.2 17
TXST Score 32.2 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 29.2 / 14.7 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 339.2 / 122.6 83.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 609.3 / 302.9 250.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +275 / -345 → +470 / -649 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 59.5 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +2.1
TXST Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +2.1
TXST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -15.3
TXST
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
USU
TXST
USU
ML
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
TTL
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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