Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia St @ Arkansas St GAST @ ARST

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

4-3  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

4-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
@
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
Player
Samer Layous None-None
Reed Linder None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
39%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
61%
▲ Edge: +15.80% (ARST)
GEORGIA ST 59% Book Odds: -142
ARKANSAS ST 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 58.5 38%
Under 58.5 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Arkansas State)
Georgia StGAST (-2.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+2.5)
Arkansas State Red Wolves (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

36.0%

Arkansas St Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

GAST By 1-6 points

14.2%

GAST By 7-13 points

11.3%

ARST By 1-6 points

16.9%

ARST By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 30.50
29
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
27
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 30.50
25
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arkansas St (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Arkansas St (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Sim u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 GAST @ ARST 32 - 38
Nov 16, 2024 ARST @ GAST 27 - 20
Nov 20, 2021 ARST @ GAST 20 - 28
Oct 15, 2020 GAST @ ARST 52 - 59
Oct 5, 2019 ARST @ GAST 38 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.0% more
Georgia State: 1.7 vs Arkansas State: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.4% more
Georgia State: 185.6 vs Arkansas State: 119.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.6% more
Georgia State: 418.1 vs Arkansas State: 365.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 24.0 32
ARST Score 29.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 22.0 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 119.9 / 185.6 160.0 / 201.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 365.4 / 418.1 469.0 / 429.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100 → -142 / +120 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
70%TICKETS30%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 58.5 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: +7.7
ARST
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: +7.7
ARST
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.4
ARST
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
GAST
ARST
GAST
ML
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
ATS
62% 5-3
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
TTL
25% 2-6
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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