Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Southern Miss UL @ USM

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

5-3  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 5:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

2-5  |  Home

35
Key Game
Mason Golding
KEY GAME

Mason Golding

#49 | Punter
@
Talik Parkman
KEY GAME

Talik Parkman

#94 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Mason Golding None-None
Talik Parkman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
66%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
34%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (USM)
LOUISIANA 82% Book Odds: -451
SOUTHERN MISS 21% Book Odds: +370
Book Implied: 81.90% / 21.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 47%
Under 52.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
+11.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Southern Miss)
LouisianaUL (-11.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+11.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+11.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

30.9%

Southern Miss Cover

69.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USM +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

UL By 1-6 points

16.5%

UL By 7-13 points

19.3%

USM By 1-6 points

12.9%

USM By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
29
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 32
22
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
31
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 32
28
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisiana Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim Southern Miss (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 UL @ USM 31 - 35
Oct 18, 2025 USM @ UL 22 - 10
Oct 5, 2024 UL @ USM 23 - 13
Nov 9, 2023 USM @ UL 34 - 31
Oct 27, 2022 UL @ USM 24 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.9% more
Louisiana: 204.1 vs Southern Miss: 110.5
Time of Possession (L5) +17.0% more
Louisiana: 0.6 vs Southern Miss: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Louisiana: 0.5 vs Southern Miss: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.8% more
Louisiana: 22.5 vs Southern Miss: 20.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 29.0 31
USM Score 22.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 22.5 24.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 110.5 / 204.1 286.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 381.4 / 371.0 450.0 / 417.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -426 / +330 → -451 / +370 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -10.5 / +10.5 → -11.5 / +11.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52.5
11%TICKETS89%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 8.9 ATS +/-: +6.0
USM
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
5-2-1 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.9 ATS +/-: +6.0
USM
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -0.3
USM
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
UL
USM
UL
ML
67% 6-3
88% 7-1
44% 4-5
75% 6-2
ATS
56% 5-4
57% 4-3-1
44% 4-5
71% 5-2-1
TTL
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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