Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ C Michigan M-OH @ CMU

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

5-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

3-5  |  Home

27
Key Game
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
48%
📊
C MICHIGAN
52%
▲ Edge: +11.30% (CMU)
MIAMI OH 62% Book Odds: -160
C MICHIGAN 41% Book Odds: +144
Book Implied: 61.50% / 41%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.4
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 (Over)
Over 40.5 74%
Under 40.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Central Michigan)
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+3.5)
Central Michigan Chippewas (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

47.2%

C Michigan Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

M-OH By 1-6 points

16.1%

M-OH By 7-13 points

14.6%

CMU By 1-6 points

16.7%

CMU By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 22
26.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18.50
Simulated Score
26
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 22
28
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 18.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI C Michigan Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim C Michigan Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim C Michigan (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.4
A
Sim o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 M-OH @ CMU 28 - 27
Oct 26, 2024 CMU @ M-OH 7 - 46
Oct 2, 2021 CMU @ M-OH 17 - 28
Dec 7, 2019 M-OH @ CMU 26 - 21
Sep 23, 2017 M-OH @ CMU 31 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.0% more
Central Michigan: 1.3 vs Miami (OH): 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.2% more
Miami (OH): 191.9 vs Central Michigan: 172.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 25.2 28
CMU Score 26.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 17.4 16.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 172.4 / 191.9 64.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 319.2 / 345.3 285.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115 → -160 / +144 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 40.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -3.4
CMU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -4.0 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -3.4
CMU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.0 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +7.8
CMU
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
M-OH
CMU
M-OH
ML
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
ATS
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
TTL
33% 3-6
75% 6-2-1
44% 4-5
75% 6-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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