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RICE

RICERICE

1-7  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 12:00 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

5-2  |  Home

51
Key Game
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
@
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
Player
Charlie Durkin None-None
Reed Chandley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
23%
📊
FAU
77%
RICE 26% Book Odds: +291
FAU 77% Book Odds: -343
Book Implied: 25.60% / 77.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.6
Projected
Book Total
55.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 55.0 50%
Under 55.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
RiceRICE (+10) 0 FAUFAU (-10)
Florida Atlantic Owls (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

17.7%

FAU Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FAU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

RICE By 1-6 points

8.6%

RICE By 7-13 points

5.3%

FAU By 1-6 points

13.5%

FAU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
RICE
Book Implied: 22.50
33.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
22
RICE
Book Implied: 22.50
40
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI FAU Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim FAU Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI FAU (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim FAU (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 54.6
D
Sim o55.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 RICE @ FAU 49 - 51
Oct 4, 2025 FAU @ RICE 27 - 21
Nov 25, 2023 FAU @ RICE 21 - 24
Oct 15, 2022 RICE @ FAU 14 - 17
Nov 5, 2016 FAU @ RICE 42 - 25
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +52.5% more
Florida Atlantic: 25.7 vs Rice: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +42.5% more
Florida Atlantic: 441.5 vs Rice: 309.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +28.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 0.6 vs Rice: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.9% more
Rice: 232.3 vs Florida Atlantic: 123.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 20.8 49
FAU Score 33.8 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.7 / 16.8 29.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 123.4 / 232.3 122.0 / 499.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 441.5 / 309.9 461.0 / 608.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +291 / -343 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 55 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -1.1
FAU Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -1.1
FAU Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.4
FAU
8-1-0
O: 88.9% / U: 11.1% Total +/-: +12.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
RICE
FAU
RICE
ML
78% 7-2
100% 8-0
67% 6-3
75% 6-2
ATS
33% 3-6
38% 3-5
33% 3-6
25% 2-6
TTL
33% 3-6
62% 5-3
67% 6-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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