Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma @ Mississippi St OU @ MSST

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

4-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 24 • 3:30 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-3  |  Home

15
Key Game
Tate Sandell
KEY GAME

Tate Sandell

#29 | Place kicker
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Tate Sandell None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA
60%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
40%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (OU)
OKLAHOMA 54% Book Odds: -119
MISSISSIPPI ST 48% Book Odds: +108
Book Implied: 54.30% / 48.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 49.5 55%
Under 49.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OKLAHOMA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Oklahoma)
OklahomaOU (-1.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+1.5)
Oklahoma Sooners (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma Cover

61.2%

Mississippi St Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OU)

OU By 1-6 points

17.0%

OU By 7-13 points

18.0%

MSST By 1-6 points

14.7%

MSST By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 25.50
23.8
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
21
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 25.50
42
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Loss
98% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oklahoma (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
C
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 24, 2026 OU @ MSST 23 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.5% more
Oklahoma: 2.5 vs Mississippi State: 1.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +76.6% more
Mississippi State: 143.4 vs Oklahoma: 81.2
First Downs (L5) +33.7% more
Mississippi State: 22.1 vs Oklahoma: 16.5
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
Mississippi State: 380.7 vs Oklahoma: 307.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OU Score 27.8 23
MSST Score 23.8 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 16.5 17.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 143.4 / 81.2 166.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.09 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 380.7 / 307.9 352.0 / 467.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → -119 / +108 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 49.5 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -6.3
MSST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -6.3
MSST Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.9
MSST
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
OU
MSST
OU
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
TTL
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
0% 0-8
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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