Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ Wyoming AFA @ WYO

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

5-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Fri, Oct 23 • 9:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

5-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Carter Cremascoli
KEY GAME

Carter Cremascoli

#90 | Place kicker
@
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
Player
Carter Cremascoli None-None
Bart Edmiston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
58%
📊
WYOMING
42%
▲ Edge: +10.10% (WYO)
AIR FORCE 71% Book Odds: -247
WYOMING 32% Book Odds: +216
Book Implied: 71.20% / 31.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 54%
Under 46.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.6
WYOMING
Book Spread
+6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Wyoming)
Air ForceAFA (-6.5) 0 WyomingWYO (+6.5)
Wyoming Cowboys (+6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

39.9%

Wyoming Cover

60.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WYO +3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

AFA By 1-6 points

17.0%

AFA By 7-13 points

17.8%

WYO By 1-6 points

14.9%

WYO By 7-13 points

12.4%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 26.50
22.2
WYOMING
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
30
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 26.50
18
WYOMING
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Air Force Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Loss
89% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wyoming (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.6
C
Sim Air Force (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 23, 2026 AFA @ WYO 14 - 28
Oct 18, 2025 WYO @ AFA 21 - 24
Sep 28, 2024 AFA @ WYO 19 - 31
Oct 14, 2023 WYO @ AFA 27 - 34
Sep 16, 2022 AFA @ WYO 14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.5% more
Air Force: 359.2 vs Wyoming: 217.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs Wyoming: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
Air Force: 23.4 vs Wyoming: 19.7
Total Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Air Force: 405.6 vs Wyoming: 367.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 25.8 14
WYO Score 22.2 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 23.4 13.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 217.4 / 359.2 188.0 / 304.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 367.6 / 405.6 301.0 / 387.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -230 / +190 → -247 / +216 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -6.5 / +6.5
55%TICKETS45%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 46.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
WYO
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
WYO
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.1
WYO
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
AFA
WYO
AFA
ML
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
TTL
12% 1-7
29% 2-5
12% 1-7
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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