Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ App State JMU @ APP

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

7-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Thu, Oct 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

5-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
James London
KEY GAME

James London

#83 | Place kicker
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
James London None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
83%
📊
APP STATE
17%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (JMU)
JAMES MADISON 83% Book Odds: -484
APP STATE 20% Book Odds: +393
Book Implied: 82.90% / 20.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 40%
Under 56.5 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-12.5) 0 App StateAPP (+12.5)
James Madison Dukes (-12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

88.8%

App State Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

10.7%

JMU By 7-13 points

17.5%

APP By 1-6 points

5.9%

APP By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
34.5
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 34.50
17.5
APP STATE
Book Implied: 22
Simulated Score
31
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 34.50
26
APP STATE
Book Implied: 22
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim James Madison Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim App State (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 22, 2026 JMU @ APP 31 - 34
Nov 15, 2025 APP @ JMU 10 - 58
Nov 23, 2024 JMU @ APP 20 - 34
Nov 18, 2023 APP @ JMU 26 - 23
Sep 24, 2022 JMU @ APP 32 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.0% more
James Madison: 234.9 vs App State: 157.4
Total Yards (L5) +18.2% more
James Madison: 483.3 vs App State: 395.4
First Downs (L5) +9.3% more
James Madison: 23.1 vs App State: 21.0
Turnovers (L5) +67.0% more
App State: 1.4 vs James Madison: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 34.5 31
APP Score 17.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 23.1 22.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 157.4 / 234.9 81.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.39 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 395.4 / 483.3 366.0 / 423.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -410 / +320 → -484 / +393 ↓
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -10.5 / +10.5 → -12.5 / +12.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
19%TICKETS81%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
8-2-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +9.6
APP
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +9.6
APP
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.8
APP
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
JMU
APP
JMU
ML
62% 5-3
70% 7-3
62% 5-3
50% 5-5
ATS
12% 1-7
50% 5-5
75% 6-2
70% 7-3
TTL
38% 3-5
40% 4-6
62% 5-3
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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