Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Sam Houston NMSU @ SHSU

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

3-4  |  Road

30
FINAL
Wed, Oct 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

1-6  |  Home

24
Key Game
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
@
Cal Joseph
KEY GAME

Cal Joseph

#31 | Punter
Player
Brody Richter None-None
Cal Joseph None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
57%
📊
SAM HOUSTON
43%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (SHSU)
NEW MEXICO ST 62% Book Odds: -163
SAM HOUSTON 41% Book Odds: +146
Book Implied: 62% / 40.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 47.0 60%
Under 47.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Sam Houston)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 Sam HoustonSHSU (+3.5)
Sam Houston Bearkats (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

41.5%

Sam Houston Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SHSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

NMSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

SHSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

SHSU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
24.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
24
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
28
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI New Mexico St Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Sam Houston Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sam Houston (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Sam Houston (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2026 NMSU @ SHSU 30 - 24
Oct 2, 2025 SHSU @ NMSU 10 - 37
Sep 21, 2024 NMSU @ SHSU 11 - 31
Oct 11, 2023 SHSU @ NMSU 13 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.9% more
New Mexico State: 2.3 vs Sam Houston: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.9% more
New Mexico State: 142.5 vs Sam Houston: 97.1
First Downs (L5) +16.1% more
New Mexico State: 17.7 vs Sam Houston: 14.9
Total Yards (L5) +15.2% more
New Mexico State: 335.7 vs Sam Houston: 284.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 27.5 30
SHSU Score 24.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.9 / 17.7 9.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 97.1 / 142.5 11.0 / 203.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.23 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 284.8 / 335.7 246.0 / 363.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114 → -163 / +146 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 47 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
SHSU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
SHSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.1 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.8
SHSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
NMSU
SHSU
NMSU
ML
88% 7-1
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
ATS
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
TTL
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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