Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Marshall USA @ MRSH

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

4-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

4-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Cooper Heimbach None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
51%
📊
MARSHALL
49%
▲ Edge: +1% (MRSH)
SOUTH ALABAMA 54% Book Odds: -119
MARSHALL 48% Book Odds: +108
Book Implied: 54.30% / 48.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.5
Projected
Book Total
66.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +10.0 (Under)
Over 66.5 31%
Under 66.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
MARSHALL
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Marshall)
South AlabamaUSA (-1.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (+1.5)
Marshall Thundering Herd (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

48.6%

Marshall Cover

51.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MRSH +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

USA By 1-6 points

16.6%

USA By 7-13 points

15.8%

MRSH By 1-6 points

16.3%

MRSH By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
28.5
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 34
28
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 34
31
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI South Alabama Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Marshall Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +0.5
D
Sim Marshall (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u66.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.5
A
Sim u66.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 USA @ MRSH 13 - 20
Nov 18, 2023 MRSH @ USA 0 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.9% more
South Alabama: 234.4 vs Marshall: 178.4
Turnovers (L5) +243.0% more
Marshall: 3.1 vs South Alabama: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +11.5% more
Marshall: 23.6 vs South Alabama: 21.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 28.5 13
MRSH Score 28.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.6 / 21.1 20.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 178.4 / 234.4 147.0 / 178.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 460.9 / 431.2 328.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 3.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -119 / +108 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 66.5 ↑
11%TICKETS89%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
MRSH Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
MRSH
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +10.1
MRSH
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
USA
MRSH
USA
ML
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
TTL
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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