Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ FIU MTSU @ FIU

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

4-3  |  Road

26
FINAL
Tue, Oct 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Felix Visser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
26%
📊
FIU
74%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (MTSU)
MTSU 24% Book Odds: +320
FIU 80% Book Odds: -410
Book Implied: 23.80% / 80.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 46.5 56%
Under 46.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida International)
MTSUMTSU (+10) 0 FIUFIU (-10)
Florida International Panthers (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

21.6%

FIU Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FIU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

MTSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

MTSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

FIU By 1-6 points

14.7%

FIU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 18.20
29.8
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
22
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 18.20
27
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI FIU Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim FIU Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI FIU (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim MTSU (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.6
C
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2026 MTSU @ FIU 26 - 23
Nov 8, 2025 FIU @ MTSU 56 - 30
Nov 30, 2024 MTSU @ FIU 24 - 35
Nov 11, 2023 FIU @ MTSU 6 - 40
Nov 26, 2022 MTSU @ FIU 33 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
Florida International: 0.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Florida International: 126.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 107.2
Total Yards (L5) +13.2% more
Florida International: 363.9 vs Middle Tennessee: 321.4
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
Florida International: 0.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 18.8 26
FIU Score 29.8 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 17.9 15.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 126.5 / 107.2 168.0 / 248.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 363.9 / 321.4 347.0 / 448.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +340 / -440 → +320 / -410 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 46.5 ↑
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
FIU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
FIU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +6.5
FIU
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -10.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
MTSU
FIU
MTSU
ML
89% 8-1
67% 6-3
89% 8-1
78% 7-2
ATS
25% 2-6-1
56% 5-4
38% 3-5-1
67% 6-3
TTL
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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