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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

4-1-0  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:30 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

2-3-0  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.00 0.870 --
Ilya Sorokin None-None 4.01 0.840 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.00 Ldr GAA 4.01
0.870 Ldr Save % 0.840
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
50%
📊
ISLANDERS
50%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (NYI)
LIGHTNING 64% Book Odds: -180
ISLANDERS 40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 64.30% / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
Over 5.5 50%
Under 5.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
LightningTB (-1.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+1.5)
New York Islanders (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

22.7%

Islanders Cover

77.3%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

TB By 1 goal

9.2%

TB By 2-3 goals

6.1%

NYI By 1 goal

19.1%

NYI By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Islanders Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Islanders (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim Islanders (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 TB @ NYI 5 - 3
Dec 13, 2025 TB @ NYI 2 - 3
Dec 6, 2025 NYI @ TB 2 - 0
Dec 2, 2025 TB @ NYI 1 - 2
Apr 1, 2025 TB @ NYI 4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +18.6% more
New York: 4.6 vs Tampa Bay: 3.9
Power Play % (L5) +7.7%
New York: 18.8% vs Tampa Bay: 11.1%
Faceoff % (L5) +5.9%
New York: 51.2% vs Tampa Bay: 45.3%
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.1% more
Tampa Bay: 31.5 vs New York: 23.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.0 5
NYI Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.1 / 14.7 16.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 51.2 / 45.3 51.0 / 49.0
Hits 21.9 / 20.8 30.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 18.8 / 11.1 50.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 23.3 / 31.5 23.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.6 / 3.9 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → -180 / +150 ↓
90%TICKETS10%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
40%TICKETS60%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5 → 5.5
81%TICKETS19%
80%MONEY20%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
TB
NYI
TB
ML
67% 8-4
55% 6-5
67% 8-4
82% 9-2
ATS
42% 5-7
45% 5-6
50% 6-6
55% 6-5
TTL
27% 3-8-1
45% 5-6
82% 9-2-1
55% 6-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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