TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
3-2-1 | Road
6
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
3-2-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sergei Bobrovsky
#72 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Mackenzie Blackwood
#39 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | None-None | 3.00 | 0.909 | -- |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | None-None | 5.27 | 0.773 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
5.27
0.909 Ldr
Save %
0.773
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
20%
AVALANCHE
80%
▲ Edge: +11.30% (COL)
MAPLE LEAFS
36%
Book Odds: +180
AVALANCHE
69%
Book Odds: -218
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
59%
Under 6.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
9.8%
TOR By 2-3 goals
6.6%
COL By 1 goal
19.4%
COL By 2-3 goals
33.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
Colorado
4.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.50
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Avalanche
Loss
80% Win Prob
A
Sim
Avalanche
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.4
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 10, 2026
TOR @ COL
6 - 3
Jan 25, 2026
COL @ TOR
4 - 1
Jan 12, 2026
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Mar 19, 2025
COL @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 8, 2025
TOR @ COL
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+10.1%
Colorado: 23.7%
vs
Toronto: 13.6%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+10.0% more
Colorado: 31.5
vs
Toronto: 28.6
Hits (L5)
+8.5% more
Colorado: 19.7
vs
Toronto: 18.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.5%
Toronto: 54.3%
vs
Colorado: 49.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.8
6
COL Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 14.1
10.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
49.9 / 54.3
53.1 / 46.9
Hits
19.7 / 18.2
16.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
23.7 / 13.6
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
31.5 / 28.6
33.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 4.7
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -180
→
+180 / -218
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TOR
COL
TOR
ML
54%
7-6
53%
8-7
54%
7-6
40%
6-9
ATS
62%
8-5
40%
6-9
54%
7-6
73%
11-4
TTL
31%
4-9
47%
7-8
77%
10-3
33%
5-10
Contextual Game News
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