Home / NHL Projections NHL / Stars @ Penguins DAL @ PIT

DALLAS

STARSDAL

2-2-1  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 10 • 7:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

3-2-1  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
@
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jake Oettinger None-None 0.94 0.950 --
Arturs Silovs None-None 0.92 0.960 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.94 GAA Ldr 0.92
0.950 Save % Ldr 0.960
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
48%
📊
PENGUINS
52%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (PIT)
STARS 64% Book Odds: -180
PENGUINS 40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 64.30% / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 59%
Under 6.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Pittsburgh)
StarsDAL (-1.5) 0 PenguinsPIT (+1.5)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

24.2%

Penguins Cover

75.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

DAL By 1 goal

9.8%

DAL By 2-3 goals

6.6%

PIT By 1 goal

19.4%

PIT By 2-3 goals

33.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
DALLAS
Book Implied: 4
4.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
Book Implied: 4
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penguins Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.4
A
Sim Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 10, 2026 DAL @ PIT 1 - 2
Mar 28, 2026 DAL @ PIT 6 - 3
Dec 7, 2025 PIT @ DAL 2 - 3
Apr 5, 2025 PIT @ DAL 5 - 3
Nov 11, 2024 DAL @ PIT 7 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +23.6% more
Pittsburgh: 29.2 vs Dallas: 23.6
Takeaways (L5) +8.9% more
Pittsburgh: 4.1 vs Dallas: 3.7
Hits (L5) +41.7% more
Dallas: 21.5 vs Pittsburgh: 12.5
Faceoff % (L5) +18.4%
Dallas: 58.7% vs Pittsburgh: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 2.8 1
PIT Score 4.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.0 / 16.1 15.0 / 25.0
Faceoff % 40.3 / 58.7 55.6 / 44.4
Hits 12.5 / 21.5 10.0 / 23.0
Power Play % 1481.0 / 1667.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 29.2 / 23.6 20.0 / 25.0
Takeaways 4.1 / 3.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → -180 / +150 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
56%TICKETS44%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
86%TICKETS14%
85%MONEY15%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DAL
PIT
DAL
ML
75% 9-3
67% 8-4
50% 6-6
50% 6-6
ATS
58% 7-5
42% 5-7
67% 8-4
58% 7-5
TTL
33% 4-8
58% 7-5
42% 5-7
67% 8-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Penguins' Early-Season Mediocrity Raises Questions About Goalten…
usatoday 1 hour, 9 minutes ago
Tuch's Early Goal-Scoring Feat Propels Capitals Past Flyers, 5-2
timesargus 7 hours, 19 minutes ago
Steelers Eyeing Trade for Colts' Josh Downs to Bolster Banged-Up…
si 18 hours, 41 minutes ago
Predators' New GM Demands the Extraordinary Become Routine
tennessean 19 hours, 22 minutes ago
Steelers' 5-2 Start Hinges on Fixing These Two Flaws
si 1 day, 1 hour ago