UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
4-2-0 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-3-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Karel Vejmelka
#70 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | None-None | 1.00 | 0.958 | -- |
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 4.04 | 0.867 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
4.04
0.958 Ldr
Save %
0.867
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
56%
SABRES
44%
â–˛ Edge: +4.80% (UTA)
MAMMOTH
52%
Book Odds: -106
SABRES
51%
Book Odds: -104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
â–˛
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 6.5
67%
Under 6.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
UTA By 1 goal
19.1%
UTA By 2-3 goals
34.1%
BUF By 1 goal
9.2%
BUF By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
4.5
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Utah
4
UTAH
Book Implied: 4
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mammoth
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Sabres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.5
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 10, 2026
UTA @ BUF
4 - 1
Nov 12, 2025
BUF @ UTA
2 - 5
Nov 4, 2025
UTA @ BUF
2 - 1
Mar 20, 2025
BUF @ UTA
2 - 5
Dec 7, 2024
UTA @ BUF
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+39.1%
Utah: 39.1%
vs
Buffalo: 0.0%
Takeaways (L5)
+27.2% more
Utah: 4.2
vs
Buffalo: 3.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.4% more
Utah: 12.9
vs
Buffalo: 9.8
Shots on Goal (L5)
+19.1% more
Utah: 33.0
vs
Buffalo: 26.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTA Score
4.5
4
BUF Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
9.8 / 12.9
19.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
45.9 / 54.7
46.7 / 53.3
Hits
21.2 / 25.5
17.0 / 33.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 39.1
25.0 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
26.7 / 33.0
24.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 4.2
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
-106 / -104
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
UTA
BUF
UTA
ML
83%
10-2
62%
8-5
42%
5-7
62%
8-5
ATS
58%
7-5
46%
6-7
67%
8-4
46%
6-7
TTL
50%
6-6
31%
4-9
42%
5-7
54%
7-6
Contextual Game News
NHL 2026-27 Early Season Shocks: Hellebuyck's Holdout, Bruins' B…
Utah Mammoth's Power Play Shines but Seattle Kraken Prevails 5-3
Rangers Aimed for Utah's Top Prospects in Trocheck Trade, Not Be…
Cole Knuble's First Two NHL Goals Lift Flyers Past Sabres
Flyers’ Rookie Knuble Shines as Team Rides Three-Game Win Streak